San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers aren’t easy to figure out. When the Bolts go 14-2 and claim home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs, as they did two seasons ago, they can't get past the divisional round. But when they stumble out of the gate, recover in time to win the division but have to hit the road for the playoffs (like last year), they go into Indianapolis shorthanded and beat the Colts. Then they give an undefeated New England team a darn good fight, without their all-world RB and starting QB, in the conference championship game. It’s a football betting minefield.

So it goes to reason that as heavy favorites to win the West for the fourth time in five seasons this year, the Chargers will probably struggle. Right? Well, to begin with, the Bolts are the favorites in the West for good reason.

After a 1-3 start last year, San Diego finished 10-2, and won its last six games in a row. The Chargers ranked 20th in the league last season in total offense at 315 YPG, but seventh in rushing at 127 YPG. And the defense ranked 14th overall at 320 YPG and 16th vs. the run at 107 YPG.

The Chargers also led the league in INTs (30) and turnovers (+24), although that last stat tends to even out over the course of a couple of seasons. But San Diego ranked a somewhat surprising 19th in total yardage at -5 YPG.

The Bolts also went a profitable 11-5 vs. the NFL betting lines last year, 7-1 ATS at home and 10-3 vs. the numbers when chalked.

Over the offseason, San Diego basically stood pat and will probably have just one new member in the starting lineup. QB Philip Rivers, now 25-7 as an NFL starter, is blossoming into one of the better passers in the league and brings some fire to the fray. TE Antonio Gates is still great, and the in-season acquisition of WR Chris Chambers last year proved a coup.

But there is some concern surrounding RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who had an off-year last season with “just” 1,470 rushing yards and 18 combined TDs, and then watched much of the postseason from behind his helmet visor while nursing a bad wheel. Tomlinson may have more wear and tear on him than is obvious. And over the off-season the Chargers lost his backup, Michael Turner, who bolted for Atlanta – a loss that could prove important for the Chargers.

San Diego showed some guts in their first season under head coach Norv Turner last year, rebounding after the bad start and overcoming some key late-season injuries. The only things that might hold San Diego back from another run at a conference title this year would be injuries and their own high expectations.