Baltimore Ravens

No team took a bigger drop from 2006 to 2007 than the Baltimore Ravens. That 13-win season of two years ago now looks to have been an aberration; Baltimore lost its divisional-round game at home to the Colts in lethargic style that season, then followed that up with a 5-11 campaign last year.

The Ravens won four of their first six games last season, but then lost their next nine in a row. And the oddsmakers were slow to pick up on Baltimore's downfall; the Black Birds were favored in six of their first seven games, and ended up going an NFL-worst 3-13 against the spread on the NFL betting lines, and 1-7 ATS as chalk.

Baltimore ranked sixth in total defense last year at 302 YPG, and second vs. the run at 79 YPG; and yet they still gave up 24 PPG. As usual the Ravens' offense leaned toward the pedestrian, ranking 22^nd overall at 302 YPG and 16^th in rushing at 112 YPG. Baltimore also ranked 16^th in total yardage at +.4 YPG, and a respectable eighth in average time-of-possession at +2:20 per game. But the Ravens ranked dead last in the league in turnover margin at -17.

Fortunately for Baltimore this season, that last statistic tends to even itself out over the longer run. But last year's performance finally cost coach Brian Billick his job. Then in April, QB Steve McNair retired. So this last-place team of a season ago comes into this season with a new head coach and a new starting QB. And that starting QB position was still up for grabs halfway through the exhibition season.

John Harbaugh, who's never even been a coordinator before, is the new head coach. And while he's got a few ingredients to work with, the cupboard ain't exactly full. The QB situation comes down to sixth-year former starter Kyle Boller, former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith, and rookie Joe Flacco. OT Jonathan Ogden retired, leaving a big hole to fill on the offensive line. RB Willis McGahee ran for 1,200 yards last year, and Baltimore drafted Rutgers RB Ray Rice in the second round. But the offense is young, and needs an infusion of both talent and imagination.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens own one of the best DT combos in the league in Kelly Gregg and Haloti Ngata. But LB Ray Lewis and CBs Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle – key players on that defense – are all showing their age, and are not what they once were. And playing the fourth-toughest schedule in the league won't help. It may be another long season in Baltimore this year as the NFL odds stack up against the birds.